Citigroup Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $62.07median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $127.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 51% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $213B Enterprise Value $179.3B Shares Outstanding 1.9B diluted Next Earnings Date13 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Citi entered the second half of 2026 with materially stronger reported returns: RoTCE was 13.1% in the first quarter and 13.0% in the second quarter, exceeding management's 10%-11% full-year objective on a quarterly annualized basis. Investor Day established a further pathway to 11%-13% RoTCE in 2027-2028 and approximately 14%-15% in 2029-2031. Capital resilience also improved, with a 12.8% standardized CET1 ratio at June 30, a 3.6% stress-capital buffer, a planned quarterly dividend increase to $0.67 and a $30 billion multiyear repurchase program. Execution of the remaining transformation, maintenance of capital headroom and delivery of higher returns therefore remain the decisive monitoring points. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$129.00 Mean target$154.50 High · most bullish analyst$176.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $129.0020% Returns fall below the 10% lower boundary of the 2026 objective as macroeconomic, credit, regulatory or transformation-execution pressures outweigh business momentum. A reduction in CET1 toward the 11.6% regulatory requirement could also constrain planned capital distributions and weaken the per-share earnings case. Base CaseCentral scenario $154.5055% Matches the consensus meanCiti delivers around its stated 2026 and near-term return objectives while continuing transformation and productivity work. The second-quarter 13.0% RoTCE and 12.8% standardized CET1 ratio provide operating and capital cushions, but execution is unlikely to be linear. Bull CaseUpside scenario $176.0025% Citi sustains positive operating momentum, delivers within or above the 11%-13% RoTCE range during 2027-2028 and makes credible progress toward approximately 14%-15% in 2029-2031. Improved stress performance, the $30 billion repurchase authorization and the higher dividend amplify per-share outcomes if earnings and capital generation remain durable. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |