Cisco Systems, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cisco Systems, Inc.

CSCONASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunications Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value $59.67median of 6 methods · middle span $57-$84based on filings through 25 Apr 2026

Market Price $108.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $428.8B

Enterprise Value $444.4B

Shares Outstanding 4B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cisco entered FY2027 with exceptional demand momentum: Q4 FY2026 product orders rose 35%, networking orders rose 40%, and management expects AI-infrastructure revenue to increase from approximately $4.0 billion in FY2026 to $7.5 billion in FY2027. FY2027 guidance calls for $72.2-$73.4 billion of revenue and $5.05-$5.11 of non-GAAP EPS. These fundamentals support continued earnings growth, but the issuer-hosted share price of $110.16 already reflects substantial optimism and leaves a narrower margin of safety against execution, product-mix, supply and hyperscaler-demand risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets22 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$115.00

Mean target$134.77

High · most bullish analyst$165.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$115.0018%

Hyperscaler deployments slip, networking orders normalize sharply, or component costs and product mix pressure gross margin below guidance. A weaker order-to-revenue conversion and lower confidence in the FY2027 AI-revenue expectation would compress the valuation despite recurring-revenue visibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$134.7756%

Matches the consensus mean

Cisco broadly delivers FY2027 guidance, with AI infrastructure and networking growth offset partly by slower services growth and normalization from unusually strong order comparisons.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$165.0026%

AI and networking demand remain stronger for longer: the networking refresh sustains double-digit orders, Cisco converts its $9.3 billion of FY2026 AI-infrastructure orders efficiently, FY2027 AI revenue meets or exceeds $7.5 billion, and operating leverage keeps margins near or above guidance. The scenario target reflects continued premium valuation for durable AI-networking growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Broad-based demand is unusually strong: Q4 FY2026 total product orders increased 35% year over year and networking product orders increased 40%.
AI infrastructure has become material: FY2026 orders reached $9.3 billion, FY2026 revenue was approximately $4.0 billion, and management expects $7.5 billion of FY2027 revenue.
The $46.734 billion remaining-performance-obligation balance provides meaningful contracted-revenue visibility.

Key Investment Risks

The AI outlook depends materially on hyperscaler deployment schedules, making order and revenue timing potentially volatile.
Q4 FY2026 non-GAAP gross margin was 66.3%, versus 68.4% a year earlier, leaving product mix, component costs and tariffs as important earnings sensitivities.
The current share price embeds significant confidence in the networking supercycle and FY2027 guidance, increasing downside if growth or margins miss expectations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.