Cirrus Logic Inc Dossier
|
SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.12 Intrinsic Value $121.99median of 6 methods · middle span $91-$158based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $120.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6B Enterprise Value $5.2B Shares Outstanding 51.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cirrus Logic (CRUS) delivered stellar financial results for FY26, posting record revenue of $2.0 billion and record non-GAAP EPS of $9.26, driven by robust smartphone component demand and expanding PC sales. The company maintains an exceptionally strong balance sheet with approximately $1.2 billion in cash and investments, zero debt, and robust free cash flow generation ($635.8 million in FY26). However, the stock has run up significantly over the past year, trading near its 52-week high and reflecting a premium valuation that leaves a limited margin of safety. Furthermore, structural risks remain high, with Apple Inc. accounting for 91% of FY26 revenue. While the long-term diversification strategy into high-performance mixed-signal (HPMS) applications (such as haptics, camera controllers, and smart power ICs) is promising, near-term upside appears fully priced in, justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$130.00 Mean target$165.00 High · most bullish analyst$200.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $140.0015% Slowing global smartphone demand or inventory corrections at the primary customer lead to sequential revenue declines. Delays in non-smartphone design wins (PC, automotive) fail to offset mobile concentration, causing multiple compression as investors de-risk the stock. Base CaseCentral scenario $165.0060% Matches the consensus meanSteady execution on the smartphone roadmap with Apple maintaining its dominant supplier relationship through 2030. PC market transitions gradually to AI-enabled platforms, supporting mid-single-digit revenue growth. Operating margins remain healthy in the 26-28% range, supported by strong operational discipline. Bull CaseUpside scenario $200.0025% Accelerated adoption of AI-enabled PCs and smartphones drives higher content per device, boosting HPMS and audio component demand. Apple greenlights rapid deployment of next-generation battery-enhancing and smart power ICs, leading to a faster-than-expected revenue diversification and multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |