CION Invt Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $7.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $351.8M Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 51M diluted Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CION Investment Corporation (CION) is a business development company (BDC) focused on senior secured loans to U.S. middle-market companies. While CION offers an exceptionally high dividend yield and trades at a steep discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV), it faces significant headwinds. These include a PIK-heavy (Payment-in-Kind) income profile, material unrealized losses in its equity portfolio, and a recent 7.4% quarter-over-quarter drop in NAV per share at year-end 2025, followed by a further decline to $13.11 per share in Q1 2026. Although its core debt portfolio remains relatively healthy with non-accruals below the industry average, the elevated risk profile warrants a cautious 'Hold' stance until NAV stabilization and improved earnings quality are demonstrated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$9.00 Mean target$9.25 High · most bullish analyst$9.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.0015% Further mark-to-market write-downs in the equity and debt portfolios lead to continued NAV erosion. Non-accruals rise above the industry average as middle-market borrowers struggle under sustained high interest rates, forcing a reduction in the monthly distribution rate. Base CaseCentral scenario $9.2560% Matches the consensus meanCION continues to trade at a persistent discount to NAV due to lingering concerns over earnings quality and PIK exposure. NAV stabilizes in the $13.00 - $13.50 range, and the company maintains its base monthly distributions of $0.10 per share. Credit quality remains manageable with non-accruals staying below 2.5%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $9.5025% The steep discount to NAV (trading at ~0.50x P/NAV) narrows as the company successfully exits underperforming equity investments and stabilizes its NAV. Core portfolio companies continue to show positive EBITDA growth, and interest coverage remains strong, allowing CION to maintain its high distribution yield and eventually transition PIK income back to cash. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |