Cigna Group Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryManaged Health Care Beta (adjusted)0.54 Intrinsic Value $341.04median of 6 methods · middle span $280-$680based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $267.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $70.8B Enterprise Value $93.6B Shares Outstanding 262M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The operating evidence is balanced. Cigna raised its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to at least $30.45 per share, while Cigna Healthcare earnings and Evernorth Specialty and Care Services earnings grew strongly. Offsetting these positives, Pharmacy Benefit Services adjusted income declined 27%, pharmacy customers declined, the medical care ratio increased, and the company is preparing to exit the Individual and Family Plans medical business. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$290.00 Mean target$341.42 High · most bullish analyst$400.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $290.0020% Pharmacy Benefit Services weakness persists beyond the anticipated investment period, pharmacy-customer attrition continues, or medical costs move above management's outlook range, offsetting specialty and employer-business growth. The scenario target is an analytical downside judgment rather than issuer guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $341.4258% Matches the consensus meanCigna delivers at least its $30.45 adjusted earnings-per-share outlook, Cigna Healthcare remains within the 83.7%-84.7% medical care ratio range, and Pharmacy Benefit Services pressure moderates without eliminating gains from Specialty and Care Services. Bull CaseUpside scenario $400.0022% Execution exceeds the raised outlook as specialty volume, biosimilar and generic adoption, operating efficiencies, and improved U.S. Employer margins outweigh Pharmacy Benefit Services transition costs. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |