Cia Paranaense De Energia Copel ADR Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Diversified Beta (adjusted)0.51 Intrinsic Value $4.86median of 5 methods · middle span $1-$5based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $12.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 61% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-61%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.2B Enterprise Value $25B Shares Outstanding 742.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Copel's current investor-relations materials show a substantial operating footprint and scheduled near-term disclosures, but the issuer's latest published ADR analyst consensus remains dated August 11, 2025. The base case therefore uses the issuer-published US$15.25 ADR mean as a transparent but stale anchor. Until Copel publishes a refreshed primary-source consensus or the 3Q26 disclosures provide stronger evidence for rerating, a Hold stance is more defensible than an aggressive directional recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.80 Mean target$17.27 High · most bullish analyst$22.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $14.8020% The bear target is the published US$14.50 minimum. Base CaseCentral scenario $17.2760% Matches the consensus meanCopel preserves its reported operating footprint, and no material deterioration emerges in the scheduled 3Q26 disclosure. Because that consensus was last updated on August 11, 2025, it should be treated as a dated anchor rather than a fresh 2026 market consensus. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.0020% Copel maintains at least 6.2 GW of installed capacity and more than 5.1 million consumer units, while subsequent disclosures support a valuation near the upper end of the issuer-published ADR analyst range. The bull target is the published US$16.50 maximum. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |