Cia Energetica DE Minas Gerais - Cemig ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cia Energetica DE Minas Gerais - Cemig ADR

CMIG3B3

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Regulated Electric

Beta (adjusted)0.37

Intrinsic Value $5.69median of 5 methods · middle span $0-$8based on filings through 31 Dec 2024

Market Price $2.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 171% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+171%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $6B

Shares Outstanding 2.9B diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (Cemig) presents a compelling investment opportunity combining attractive valuation, robust dividend payouts, and a highly focused capital expenditure program. Despite recent market volatility driven by external macroeconomic and weather factors, Cemig's core operational strengths in generation, transmission, and distribution remain intact. The company is executing a massive R$ 44 billion investment program from 2026 to 2030, primarily focused on its core business in Minas Gerais. With the recent appointment of career engineer Alexandre Ramos Peixoto as CEO and the financial leadership of Andrea Marques de Almeida, Cemig is well-positioned to navigate regulatory changes and drive long-term shareholder value.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1.91

Mean target$2.14

High · most bullish analyst$2.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.91

Adverse political intervention following state elections, severe drought conditions restricting hydroelectric output, or execution delays in major transmission and distribution projects.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$2.14

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the 2026–2030 strategic plan, maintaining a healthy leverage profile (Net Debt/EBITDA around 2.45x), and consistent dividend distributions. Valuation normalizes slightly as market concerns over political risks subside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$2.50

Accelerated execution of the R$ 44 billion investment plan, favorable hydrological conditions leading to strong hydroelectric generation margins, and potential regulatory or political developments favoring privatization or increased operational autonomy. This scenario assumes multiple expansion toward sector medians.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Massive R$ 44 billion capital expenditure program (2026–2030) focused on high-return core utility assets in Minas Gerais.
Strong financial leadership under CFO Andrea Marques de Almeida, demonstrated by successful large-scale debt issuances and low leverage.
Attractive dividend profile with a history of consistent payouts and robust cash flow generation.

Key Investment Risks

Political and regulatory risks associated with state ownership and upcoming Minas Gerais state elections.
Hydrological risk due to reliance on hydroelectric power generation, which is highly dependent on rainfall patterns.
Macroeconomic headwinds in Brazil, including interest rate fluctuations and inflation affecting tariff adjustments.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant shift in state government policy leading to unfavorable changes in corporate governance or strategic direction.
Severe, prolonged drought conditions that materially impair generation capacity and force expensive energy purchases on the spot market.
Failure to execute the 2026–2030 investment plan within budgeted costs and timelines.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.