Chunghwa Telecom ADR Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryIntegrated Telecommunication Services Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $34.48median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$36based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $45.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $35.3B Enterprise Value $34.3B Shares Outstanding 775.7M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Chunghwa Telecom's operating evidence is constructive: second-quarter revenue, operating income, net income and EPS exceeded the high end of quarterly guidance, while July year-to-date revenue and earnings measures remained above guidance. Core mobile and broadband services continue to expand through 5G adoption and higher-speed fiber tiers, while ICT, international projects, data centers, cloud, cybersecurity and AI infrastructure provide additional growth avenues. The counterweight is profitability: second-quarter operating costs and expenses rose faster than revenue, operating margin declined from 22.11% to 21.51%, and the 2026 plan calls for materially higher infrastructure investment while full-year EPS guidance spans a year-over-year decline to only modest growth. A Hold is therefore appropriate on operating evidence alone. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$48.08 Mean target$48.08 High · most bullish analyst$48.08 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $48.0820% Results fall below the lower ends of guidance because project-related and personnel costs continue growing faster than revenue, ICT project timing becomes less favorable, or major network and AI investments fail to generate timely returns. EBITDA margin falls below 37.3% and EPS finishes below NT$4.82. Base CaseCentral scenario $48.0855% Matches the consensus meanThe company delivers within its 2026 guidance ranges of NT$241.99 billion to NT$243.68 billion in revenue, NT$4.82 to NT$5.02 in EPS and a 37.3% to 37.7% EBITDA margin. Stable core telecom growth and expanding digital services offset higher personnel, project and infrastructure costs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $48.0825% Revenue and earnings finish above the upper ends of company guidance as 5G upgrades, higher-speed fixed broadband, resilient-network services and strong ICT order conversion outweigh higher costs. International project delivery, AI data-center capacity and recurring cloud, cybersecurity and IDC demand provide additional upside. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |