Chubb Ltd Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.58 Intrinsic Value $292.39median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $331.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $127.8B Enterprise Value $141.2B Shares Outstanding 391.4M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Chubb entered the second half of 2026 with excellent underwriting profitability, record adjusted net investment income and strong tangible-book-value growth. Q2 P&C underwriting income increased 18.8%, the combined ratio improved to 83.8%, adjusted net investment income reached $1.88 billion and tangible book value per share rose 17.1% year over year. These strengths are balanced by softer conditions in large-account and E&S property, a 2.3% decline in North America Commercial P&C net premiums written, catastrophe and foreign-exchange variability, and a share price of $339.92 on August 28, 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$306.00 Mean target$365.26 High · most bullish analyst$425.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $306.0019% A bear outcome assumes catastrophe losses and reserve volatility push the combined ratio toward 90%, commercial pricing weakens more broadly, premium growth stalls and investment-income growth moderates. That combination would reduce book-value compounding and place pressure on the market valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario $365.2658% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes underwriting remains highly profitable but normalizes from Q2's exceptional result, investment income remains supportive, and premium growth is led by international, personal and life operations while large-account property remains soft. Bull CaseUpside scenario $425.0023% A bull outcome assumes Chubb sustains a mid-80s-or-better combined ratio, continues double-digit investment-income growth, and restores stronger commercial premium momentum as the current property-growth penalty dissipates. Continued double-digit tangible-book-value growth and disciplined capital returns would support valuation expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |