Choice Hotels International Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLodging Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value $125.06median of 6 methods · middle span $67-$134based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $102.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.7B Enterprise Value $6.6B Shares Outstanding 45.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Choice Hotels International (CHH) operates a highly resilient, asset-light hotel franchising model that generates predictable free cash flow. However, near-term headwinds warrant a cautious stance. The company's Q1 2026 results highlighted a significant earnings miss (Adjusted EPS of $1.07 vs. $1.32 consensus) driven by inflationary cost pressures, elevated SG&A, and weaker-than-expected domestic RevPAR. While global net rooms growth of 1.7% and a 72% increase in global franchise agreements awarded signal strong underlying development momentum, domestic market share concerns and flat RevPAR guidance relative to peers who are raising outlooks suggest that the stock is fairly valued at current levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$86.00 Mean target$114.93 High · most bullish analyst$131.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent inflationary pressures and elevated labor costs continue to weigh on franchisee profitability, leading to higher-than-expected unit exits and slowing royalty fee growth. Choice continues to lose domestic market share to peers like Wyndham and Marriott, forcing downward revisions to full-year 2026 guidance. A broader slowdown in leisure and business travel demand compresses valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its transition to a highly capital-efficient model, reducing net capital outlays for hotel development from $103.4 million in 2025 to the guided $20 million to $45 million range in 2026. U.S. net rooms growth continues to inflect positively, supported by conversion-led pipelines. Adjusted EBITDA lands within the guided range of $632 million to $647 million, and Adjusted Diluted EPS meets the full-year target of $6.92 to $7.14. Valuation multiples remain stable as steady international expansion offsets soft domestic RevPAR growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |