Chimera Investment Corp Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Mortgage Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $26.14median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $9.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 179% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+179%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $783.8M Enterprise Value $13.4B Shares Outstanding 83.6M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Chimera Investment Corp (CIM) is navigating a complex macroeconomic environment characterized by interest rate volatility and a shifting yield curve. The company's strategic pivot toward Agency RMBS and the integration of its HomeXpress mortgage origination platform (which saw a 39% YoY surge in production volume to $884 million in Q1 2026) support its earnings power. While CIM generated solid Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) of $0.54 per share in Q1 2026, comfortably covering its $0.45 quarterly dividend (1.2x coverage), its GAAP book value remains highly sensitive to interest rate movements, declining 6.9% to $18.34 in Q1 2026. Given the balanced risk-reward profile, high dividend yield, and book value headwinds from elevated Treasury yields, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$14.50 High · most bullish analyst$15.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent inflation or hawkish Federal Reserve policy pushes Treasury yields higher, causing mortgage spreads to widen significantly. This leads to severe book value compression below $17.00. Elevated funding costs compress net interest margins, reducing EAD and threatening the sustainability of the $0.45 quarterly dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious, data-dependent stance on interest rates, keeping mortgage spreads relatively stable. HomeXpress continues to deliver steady origination volumes, and the portfolio repositioning toward Agency RMBS mitigates credit risk. EAD remains sufficient to cover the $0.45 quarterly dividend ($1.80 annualized), and book value stabilizes around the $18.00 level. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |