Chicago Atlantic BDC Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)0.49 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $9.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $215.7M Enterprise Value $269.2M Shares Outstanding 22.8M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. (LIEN) represents a highly specialized business development company that has carved out a premium-yield niche in senior secured lending to the cannabis industry. By operating in a complex, underfollowed sector with high barriers to entry, LIEN generates a weighted average yield of 15.8%—significantly outperforming traditional BDC peers—while maintaining conservative credit metrics, zero non-accruals, and exceptionally low leverage (0.18x debt-to-equity). The recently announced all-stock, NAV-for-NAV merger with its sibling, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI), is a transformative catalyst that will double its portfolio size to approximately $771 million and net asset value to $613 million. This scale expansion, combined with plans to optimize leverage toward 0.90x, is expected to drive substantial net investment income accretion and support its robust 13.6% dividend yield. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$11.00 Mean target$11.00 High · most bullish analyst$11.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.50 The integration of REFI's portfolio introduces higher-than-expected credit stress, leading to new non-accruals and NAV write-downs. Regulatory progress stalls at the federal level, prolonging capital constraints for cannabis operators. Leverage expansion is delayed, and NII compression forces a reduction in the quarterly dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.00 Matches the consensus meanThe merger with REFI successfully closes in Q4 2026, creating a larger, more diversified specialty finance platform. Management successfully integrates the commercial mortgage assets and scales leverage from 0.18x toward the target of 0.90x. Operating efficiencies and lower cost of capital from increased scale offset any minor credit dilution from REFI's portfolio, driving net investment income growth and maintaining strong dividend coverage above 120%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |