Chevron Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Chevron Corp

CVXNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryIntegrated Oil & Gas

Beta (adjusted)0.67

Intrinsic Value $189.27median of 6 methods · middle span $150-$635based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $207.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $406.2B

Enterprise Value $427.6B

Shares Outstanding 2.1B diluted

Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Chevron enters the second half of 2026 with record-scale production, strong cash generation, low leverage, completed Hess integration, and cost and synergy delivery ahead of schedule. The long-duration Guyana resource, Tengiz performance, U.S. upstream scale, and a five-year objective of 2%-3% annual upstream growth support durable value creation. However, the August 28 issuer quote of $201.86 already discounts substantial execution, while second-quarter earnings included an asset-sale gain and remain exposed to commodity prices and operational variability.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$175.00

Mean target$216.83

High · most bullish analyst$236.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$155.0020%

Commodity-price weakness, production below 4.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, lower quarterly adjusted free cash flow, or rising leverage reduces distribution capacity and delays realization of the long-duration Guyana and broader portfolio benefits.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$216.8356%

Matches the consensus mean

Production remains near current record levels and advances broadly in line with Chevron's 2%-3% five-year upstream CAGR objective, while cost savings and Hess synergies offset normal commodity and refining variability.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$250.0024%

Sustained production above the second-quarter record, reliable Tengiz and Australian operations, successful Guyana development, durable Hess synergies, and adjusted free-cash-flow growth above the five-year objective support multiple expansion and continued distributions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 net oil-equivalent production reached 4.07 million barrels per day, while worldwide production increased 20% year over year.
Second-quarter adjusted free cash flow was $15.4 billion, shareholder distributions were $6.5 billion, and net debt-to-CFFO was 0.6 times.
Chevron achieved $3 billion of annual structural cost savings since 2024 and $1.5 billion of Hess-related annual run-rate synergies ahead of schedule.
The Hess acquisition added a 30% nonoperated interest in Guyana's Stabroek Block, which Chevron says contains more than 11 billion barrels of discovered recoverable oil-equivalent resources.

Key Investment Risks

Chevron's five-year free-cash-flow objective is explicitly conditioned on a nominal $70 Brent price, demonstrating material commodity-price sensitivity.
Second-quarter reported earnings included a $230 million asset-sale gain, $86 million of pension-settlement costs, and a $49 million adverse foreign-currency effect, limiting clean extrapolation.
The Stabroek interest is nonoperated, so Chevron does not directly control all project timing, spending, and operating decisions associated with this major growth asset.
The 2%-3% annual upstream-production and greater-than-10% adjusted-free-cash-flow growth objectives are forward-looking execution goals rather than guaranteed outcomes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.