Chesapeake Utilities Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Chesapeake Utilities Corp

CPKNYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value $138.76median of 6 methods · middle span $115-$167based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $124.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3B

Enterprise Value $4.4B

Shares Outstanding 24.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) is a highly stable, diversified energy delivery company with a remarkable 19-year track record of consecutive earnings growth. The company's core strength lies in its regulated natural gas transmission and distribution operations, which provide highly predictable cash flows. CPK's recent acquisition of Florida City Gas (FCG) and its ambitious $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion capital expenditure plan through 2028 provide clear visibility for rate base expansion and earnings growth. However, the stock currently trades at a premium valuation relative to its utility peers, and near-term headwinds—such as project execution delays (e.g., the Worcester Resiliency Upgrade LNG facility) and regulatory lag in pending rate cases—suggest that the current stock price fully reflects these growth prospects. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the company executes its capital deployment and navigates regulatory approvals.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$134.00

Mean target$146.90

High · most bullish analyst$160.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$134.0015%

The bear case is triggered by unfavorable regulatory decisions, such as a significant reduction in authorized ROE for the FCG rate case or legislative changes that restrict infrastructure cost recovery (e.g., the repeal of STRIDE in Maryland). Further project delays, cost inflation in materials and labor, and rising interest rates could strain the balance sheet, increase financing costs, and compress margins, leading to a valuation de-rating.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$146.9060%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Chesapeake Utilities successfully executes its $450 million to $500 million capital program for 2026 and achieves its long-term EPS compound annual growth rate of 8% through 2028, reaching the guided EPS range of $7.75 to $8.00. Regulatory rate cases proceed constructively with typical regulatory lag, and the Worcester Resiliency Upgrade LNG facility comes online in early 2027. Valuation multiples remain stable, reflecting CPK's premium defensive profile.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$160.0025%

The bull case is driven by faster-than-expected regulatory approvals, particularly a highly favorable outcome in the Florida City Gas rate case (securing the requested $47 million revenue increase and an 11.25% ROE). Additionally, rapid customer organic growth in the Florida and Delmarva regions, combined with seamless execution and early commissioning of major transmission projects, could accelerate EPS growth beyond the guided 8% CAGR, driving multiple expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Exceptional track record of 19 consecutive years of adjusted EPS growth and 22 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Strong footprint in high-growth utility markets, particularly Florida and the Delmarva Peninsula, driving organic customer additions.
Highly visible capital investment pipeline of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion through 2028, heavily focused on low-risk regulated transmission and distribution assets.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory risk and lag associated with rate cases, including the pending Florida City Gas petition and potential legislative changes to cost recovery mechanisms.
Project execution and construction risks, as demonstrated by the delay in the Worcester Resiliency Upgrade LNG facility which reduced 2026 EPS by $0.10.
Sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, particularly sustained high interest rates which increase debt servicing costs for capital-intensive utility operations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material downward revision of the 2028 EPS guidance range of $7.75 to $8.00.
An adverse ruling in the Florida City Gas rate case that significantly undercuts the requested rate base or authorized ROE.
A structural shift in state-level energy policies (e.g., in Maryland or Delaware) that severely restricts natural gas infrastructure expansion or cost recovery.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.