Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryMortgage REITs Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $4.89median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $2.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 87% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+87%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $98.2M Enterprise Value $1.3B Shares Outstanding 36.8M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI) continues to navigate a highly volatile macroeconomic landscape characterized by a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. While the company's Q1 2026 Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) of $0.14 per share comfortably covered its $0.10 quarterly dividend, its GAAP book value per common share declined by 6.1% quarter-over-quarter to $3.23 due to unrealized mark-to-market losses on its RMBS portfolio. The company's dual-asset strategy (RMBS and MSRs) provides a natural hedge, but persistent interest rate volatility and elevated financing costs limit near-term book value expansion. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the company prioritizes capital preservation and risk management over aggressive growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.00 Mean target$3.00 High · most bullish analyst$3.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario In a bear case scenario, persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions push interest rates higher, causing further mark-to-market losses on RMBS. Simultaneously, a sudden spike in prepayments or a contraction in credit facilities impairs the MSR portfolio's value, forcing a further dividend cut to preserve capital. Base CaseCentral scenario Under the base case, interest rates remain elevated but stabilize, allowing the company's active hedging strategy to protect its book value. The MSR portfolio continues to benefit from low prepayment speeds (CPR around 4.5%), while the RMBS portfolio yields stable net interest income. The $0.10 quarterly dividend is maintained, supported by stable EAD. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case for Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI) centers on its highly attractive dividend yield (reported near 17-20%) and the potential stabilization of its book value. If macroeconomic interest rate volatility calms and mortgage spreads stabilize, the company's Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) can continue to cover its reset quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, offering income-focused investors a high-yielding entry point at a significant discount to book value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |