Chemed Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $629.70median of 6 methods · middle span $501-$873based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $502.90Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.6B Enterprise Value $6.7B Shares Outstanding 13.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Chemed Corporation presents a unique, highly defensive investment profile by combining VITAS Healthcare (the nation's largest hospice provider) with Roto-Rooter (the leading provider of plumbing and drain cleaning services). The investment thesis centers on a strong operational turnaround at VITAS, which has successfully navigated its 2025 Florida Medicare Cap headwinds, rebalanced its admission mix, and returned to robust organic growth. While Roto-Rooter faces near-term margin pressure from elevated digital marketing costs and weather disruptions, its residential plumbing demand is showing early signs of stabilization. Backed by a clean balance sheet, strong free cash flow generation, and aggressive share repurchases, Chemed is well-positioned to deliver double-digit adjusted EPS growth in 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$520.00 Mean target$552.00 High · most bullish analyst$590.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $520.00 A shift in acuity mix or regulatory changes negatively impacts VITAS's Medicare reimbursement rates, while rapid census growth in Florida triggers unexpected Medicare Cap liabilities. Simultaneously, Roto-Rooter's lead generation costs escalate further due to intense search engine competition, and consumer discretionary spending cuts soften residential plumbing demand. This limits adjusted EPS to the low end of guidance ($24.00) and compresses the trailing P/E multiple. Base CaseCentral scenario $552.00 Matches the consensus meanVITAS achieves its revised full-year 2026 ADC growth of 4.5% to 5.5% and revenue growth of 6.5% to 7.5%, maintaining an EBITDA margin of 18% to 18.5%. Roto-Rooter's residential plumbing revenue continues its gradual recovery, offsetting minor commercial declines, though EBITDA margins remain slightly compressed at 21.5% to 22.5% due to persistent paid search costs. Chemed delivers adjusted EPS of approximately $24.35, supported by the repurchase of 500,000 shares. Bull CaseUpside scenario $590.00 VITAS accelerates census growth beyond expectations, driven by favorable demographic tailwinds and successful scaling of labor capacity (hiring 50-60 FTEs per month). Concurrently, Roto-Rooter's newly acquired franchises in San Francisco and Fort Worth integrate seamlessly, contributing over $5.5 million in high-margin revenue, while digital marketing costs normalize as Google search algorithm headwinds ease. This drives adjusted EPS to the high end of guidance ($24.75) and expands valuation multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |