Check Point Software Technologies Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd

CHKPNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)0.66

Intrinsic Value $159.29median of 6 methods · middle span $131-$192based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $130.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.3B

Enterprise Value $13.5B

Shares Outstanding 109.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Check Point presents a balanced execution case. Security-subscription revenue grew 12% and remaining performance obligation grew 7% in the second quarter of 2026, supporting recurring-demand visibility. However, total revenue increased only 1%, following first-quarter disclosure that go-to-market changes created near-term appliance headwinds. A Hold recommendation reflects this divergence between healthy subscription momentum and weak consolidated growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets31 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$105.00

Mean target$146.32

High · most bullish analyst$201.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$105.0023%

Appliance weakness and sales-execution disruption persist, causing total revenue to stagnate or contract despite subscription growth. Competitive pressure or slower adoption of newer AI, SASE and exposure-management offerings prevents the portfolio transition from restoring consolidated growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$146.3256%

Matches the consensus mean

Security subscriptions continue to grow faster than the company overall, and remaining performance obligation supports moderate visibility, but appliance and go-to-market pressures keep consolidated growth subdued.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$201.0021%

Expanded sales capacity and improved go-to-market execution restore stronger consolidated growth while security subscriptions remain a double-digit grower. Adoption of Check Point's AI Network Firewall, AI Defense capabilities, workspace security, exposure management and SASE broadens demand beyond its mature appliance base.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 security-subscription revenue increased 12% year over year to $333 million.
Remaining performance obligation was $2.6 billion and increased 7% year over year, providing an indicator of contracted future revenue.
Management is expanding sales capacity while positioning AI Network Firewall, AI Defense, workspace security, exposure management and SASE as growth vectors.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter 2026 total revenue increased only 1%, materially trailing security-subscription growth.
First-quarter product revenue was affected by go-to-market changes that created near-term headwinds in the security-appliance business.
Results depend on customer acceptance of new solutions, continued cybersecurity-market development, competitive conditions and successful execution of the portfolio transition.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.