Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

Charter presents a balanced operational setup. Its legacy Internet base remained under pressure in the second quarter of 2026, with customer losses worsening year over year, while mobile continued to add lines at a substantial pace and video losses moderated. The completed Cox transaction materially expands Charter's operating footprint and creates opportunities to apply Spectrum products and practices across former Cox markets, but it also introduces significant execution and integration uncertainty.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$101.00
Mean target$184.41
High · most bullish analyst$380.00
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$101.0027%

Internet losses remain at or below the second-quarter 2026 pace, mobile additions decelerate, or the Cox product and operating-model rollout is delayed. Integration disruption combined with continued fixed-network customer attrition would weaken the strategic case for the enlarged company.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$184.4155%
Matches the consensus mean

Internet and total-customer attrition persist in the near term while mobile growth and better video retention provide partial offsets. The Cox integration proceeds broadly on schedule, but operating benefits emerge gradually because product migration and service-model integration require time.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$380.0018%

Internet losses improve materially, mobile adoption remains resilient, Spectrum products launch successfully throughout former Cox markets, and Charter completes its network evolution in 2027. Effective integration and stronger converged-product penetration would improve customer retention and reinforce the strategic benefits of the expanded footprint.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • Mobile remained the principal growth engine: Charter added 406,000 lines in the second quarter of 2026 and served 12.54 million mobile lines at quarter-end.
  • Video retention improved, with second-quarter 2026 video losses narrowing to 21,000 from 80,000 in the prior-year quarter.
  • The completed Cox transaction expands Spectrum's footprint to 45 states, with services available to more than 70 million homes and businesses, and provides a larger platform for converged connectivity and product deployment.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Second-quarter 2026 Internet customers declined by 172,000 versus a decline of 116,000 in the prior-year quarter, while the total Internet base decreased 1.7% year over year.
  • Total customer relationships declined by 184,000 during the second quarter and were 1.7% lower year over year.
  • The Cox transaction creates material integration risk, including the possibility of business disruption, management distraction, delayed operating benefits or failure to realize expected synergies.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.