Chain Bridge Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $37.13median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $46.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $308.3M Enterprise Value −$513.5M Shares Outstanding 6.6M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) offers a highly specialized and unique banking model focused on political organizations, campaign committees, and PACs. This niche provides a massive, low-cost deposit base that drives exceptional liquidity and capital ratios. However, the business is subject to extreme deposit seasonality tied to U.S. election cycles and high customer concentration. While credit quality is pristine with zero non-performing assets, the stock trades near its consensus fair value, justifying a Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$39.00 Mean target$39.25 High · most bullish analyst$39.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $37.0015% Post-election seasonal deposit outflows are more severe than anticipated, forcing the bank to rely on higher-cost funding sources. Regulatory changes in campaign finance or increased competition for political deposits compress margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $39.2560% Matches the consensus meanThe bank maintains its stable regional footprint and specialized political deposit niche. Net interest margins remain healthy, supported by a low cost of funds (0.32% in 2025). Capital ratios remain exceptionally strong, and the stock trades in line with regional banking peers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $39.5025% Accelerated deposit inflows from political fundraising and social welfare organizations exceed expectations, allowing the bank to expand its investment portfolio and generate higher net interest income. Continued organic expansion into commercial and trust services drives non-interest income growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |