CH Robinson Worldwide Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc

CHRWNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAir Freight & Logistics

Beta (adjusted)0.96

Intrinsic Value $131.57median of 6 methods · middle span $91-$194based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $153.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $17.9B

Enterprise Value $19.4B

Shares Outstanding 120.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

C.H. Robinson is demonstrating stronger execution during a weak freight-demand environment: second-quarter 2026 NAST volume grew 1.5% year over year while the Cass Freight Shipment Index declined 3.3%, adjusted operating income rose 19.5%, and NAST and Global Forwarding exceeded their disclosed mid-cycle margin levels. Lean AI, disciplined revenue management, and continued productivity gains support durable earnings potential. The offset is limited valuation support at the official $150.39 quote, weak quarterly cash conversion caused by working-capital consumption, rising purchased-transportation costs. These factors support a neutral rather than directional recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$91.00

Mean target$199.84

High · most bullish analyst$237.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$91.0017%

The bear case assumes truckload procurement-cost inflation continues to outrun customer-rate growth, NAST loses its relative-volume advantage, and weak cash conversion persists. The official 52-week low is used only as a transparent downside scenario proxy.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$199.8458%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Lean AI and revenue-management execution preserve margins and market-share gains, while subdued freight demand and working-capital volatility limit additional re-rating.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$237.0025%

The bull case assumes continued NAST market outgrowth, durable productivity gains, and retention of strong segment margins as freight demand improves. The official 52-week high is used only as a transparent scenario-price proxy, not as an analyst target or intrinsic-value estimate.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

NAST recorded a thirteenth consecutive quarter of market outgrowth, with second-quarter 2026 volume increasing 1.5% while the Cass Freight Shipment Index declined 3.3%.
Lean AI and the Robinson operating model have produced productivity improvements exceeding 60% since the end of 2022 in both NAST and Global Forwarding.
Second-quarter adjusted operating income increased 19.5%, while NAST and Global Forwarding adjusted operating margins excluding restructuring reached 40.9% and 33.4%, respectively.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter truckload linehaul cost per mile increased 29.0%, faster than the 25.5% increase in the corresponding customer rate per mile.
Quarterly cash generated by operations fell to $35.9 million from $227.1 million, primarily because of increased working-capital requirements.
The freight market remained in a demand trough, with the Cass Freight Shipment Index declining year over year for a fifteenth consecutive quarter.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.