CF Bankshares Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

CF Bankshares Inc

CFBKNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.60

Intrinsic Value $21.84median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $33.88Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $220M

Enterprise Value $67.9M

Shares Outstanding 6.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CF Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ: CFBK) is a high-performing, growth-focused boutique commercial bank operating across five major metropolitan markets in Ohio and Indiana. Following its successful 2012 recapitalization, the bank has maintained a strong growth trajectory, driven by its high-touch commercial lending model and expanding treasury management services. Despite industry-wide headwinds, CFBK demonstrated robust operational resilience in Q1 2026, reporting a 13% year-over-year increase in net income to $5.0 million ($0.77 per diluted share) and annualized core commercial loan growth of 15%. Trading at a conservative valuation relative to its book value ($28.20 as of March 31, 2026) and historical earnings multiples, CFBK offers an attractive risk-reward profile for value-oriented investors seeking exposure to regional banking growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$36.00

Mean target$36.00

High · most bullish analyst$36.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.00

Persistent high interest rates pressure deposit betas, leading to net interest margin compression. A broader economic slowdown in the Midwestern markets leads to rising non-performing assets and elevated provision expenses, while commercial loan demand softens.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$33.50

The bank continues to successfully execute its regional expansion strategy, leveraging its expanded commercial banking team to drive double-digit loan and deposit growth. Net interest margins stabilize near 2.70% as funding costs continue to decline, and credit quality remains pristine with negligible net charge-offs. Under this scenario, earnings per share are projected to reach $3.43 by fiscal year-end 2026.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong organic loan growth, with core commercial loans growing at a 15% annualized rate in Q1 2026 despite significant payoffs.
Improving efficiency and margin profile, supported by a 34bps year-over-year decline in cost of funds and a 5bps expansion in NIM to 2.69% in Q1 2026.
Robust capital position, with a Tier 1 Leverage ratio of 11.76% and a Total Capital Ratio of 15.15%, well above regulatory well-capitalized minimums.
Attractive valuation, trading near its book value of $28.20 per share with a conservative trailing P/E ratio of approximately 10.8x.

Key Investment Risks

Concentration in commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial lending, which are sensitive to macroeconomic downturns.
Elevated loan payoffs and amortization, which require continuous high-volume loan origination to maintain net growth.
Competition for low-cost deposits in metropolitan markets, which could pressure funding costs and limit NIM expansion.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material deterioration in credit quality, characterized by net charge-offs rising above 0.25% of total loans.
Net interest margin compression falling below 2.50% due to deposit pricing pressures.
A significant slowdown in core commercial loan growth to below 5% annualized.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.