Ceribell Inc Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $21.17median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $23.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $906.1M Enterprise Value $893.4M Shares Outstanding 38.3M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ceribell is a highly disruptive commercial-stage medical technology company addressing a critical bottleneck in acute-care neurology. By combining portable, rapidly deployable 10-electrode headbands with proprietary AI-powered algorithms (Clarity), Ceribell enables rapid point-of-care EEG diagnosis and continuous seizure monitoring in emergency departments and intensive care units. This replaces the slow, resource-intensive conventional 10-20 EEG workflow. With an exceptional gross margin of 88%, a rapidly expanding hospital footprint (over 600 hospitals adopted), and newly cleared indications in delirium and pediatrics/neonates, Ceribell is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the estimated $3 billion addressable seizure and neuro-monitoring market. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$26.86 High · most bullish analyst$32.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.0020% Sales cycle friction with larger regional hospital systems slows down new account additions. Increased commercial investments in System Account Managers and R&D for new indications widen operating losses, while competitive pressure from traditional EEG incumbents or alternative rapid-EEG startups limits pricing power. Base CaseCentral scenario $26.8650% Matches the consensus meanCeribell successfully executes its updated FY 2026 revenue guidance of $112 million to $116 million (representing 26% to 30% YoY growth). Bedside headband utilization continues to grow steadily across its existing base of 600+ hospitals, while the company maintains its high gross margins near 88% and gradually narrows its operating losses. Bull CaseUpside scenario $32.0030% Rapid commercial adoption of the newly cleared delirium monitoring solution and pediatric/neonate applications accelerates revenue growth well beyond consensus expectations. Territory expansion and the new regional hospital system sales strategy yield high-volume account wins, driving significant operating leverage and a faster path to profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |