Century Communities Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate - Development Beta (adjusted)1.20 Intrinsic Value $63.28median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $60.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $3.1B Shares Outstanding 28.4M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Century Communities, Inc. (NYSE: CCS) is navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties. While the company continues to benefit from structural undersupply in the U.S. housing market and strong demand for affordable, entry-level homes, its near-term performance is constrained by margin compression and lower delivery volumes. In Q1 2026, total revenues fell 12.6% year-over-year to $789.7 million, and net income dropped 38.0% to $24.4 million. Consequently, management reduced its full-year 2026 home delivery guidance to 9,500–10,500 homes and home sales revenue guidance to $3.5–$3.8 billion. Despite these headwinds, Century maintains a robust balance sheet with $2.6 billion in stockholders' equity and $886.1 million in total liquidity, allowing it to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and a 10% dividend increase to $0.32 per share. Given the valuation multiples trading near fair value and near-term growth headwinds, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$64.00 Mean target$78.00 High · most bullish analyst$92.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Mortgage rates spike or remain sticky above 7.5%, severely impacting affordability and driving up cancellation rates. Century is forced to increase sales incentives and rate buy-downs further, compressing gross margins below 17%. Deliveries fall below the lower end of guidance to under 9,000 homes, leading to significant earnings deterioration. Base CaseCentral scenario The housing market remains balanced but constrained by high interest rates. Century successfully delivers within its revised guidance of 9,500 to 10,500 homes for the full year 2026, generating home sales revenues of approximately $3.65 billion. Gross margins stabilize around 18-19% as construction cost deflation partially offsets the necessity of elevated sales incentives and mortgage rate buy-downs. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |