Centuri Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $21.43median of 5 methods · middle span $18-$27based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $20.54Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.1B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 102.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Centuri Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CTRI) is a pure-play North American utility infrastructure services provider well-positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds in grid modernization, electrification, and clean energy transition. Following its full separation from Southwest Gas Holdings, the company is executing its 'Vision One Centuri' plan, targeting robust long-term growth through 2029. Despite short-term margin pressures in its Non-Union Electric and U.S. Gas segments, Centuri's record $6.5 billion backlog provides strong revenue visibility, making it an attractive multi-year investment opportunity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$31.58 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.00 Persistent margin compression in the Non-Union Electric segment due to low storm activity, combined with execution delays in major utility projects, limits near-term profitability. High debt levels and rising interest costs slow down the deleveraging process, keeping the stock range-bound. Base CaseCentral scenario $31.58 Matches the consensus meanCenturi successfully executes its 'Vision One Centuri' strategy, achieving steady base revenue growth and gradual margin expansion toward its 2029 targets. The company leverages its strong utility partnerships and record backlog to deliver predictable earnings, with leverage falling to around 2.0x by year-end 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario $36.00 Accelerated grid modernization, data center power demand, and gas replacement projects drive revenue growth at the high end of the 10-15% CAGR target. Operational efficiencies and favorable contract renewals expand gross margins beyond the 9.7% target, leading to rapid deleveraging below 1.5x Net Debt/EBITDA. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |