Central Pacific Financial Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Central Pacific Financial Corp

CPFNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.90

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $36.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $928.7M

Enterprise Value $622M

Shares Outstanding 26.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF) continues to demonstrate robust core profitability, characterized by a strong net interest margin (3.53% in Q1 2026) and disciplined expense management that has kept its efficiency ratio below 60%. However, the bank faces structural headwinds from intense deposit competition, potential margin compression if interest rates remain elevated or decline rapidly, and a high geographic concentration in Hawaii's tourism- and real-estate-dependent economy. While its capital return program (dividend yield of ~3.2% to 3.6% and active share buybacks) provides downside support, near-term revenue expansion remains limited, keeping the stock fairly valued at current levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$42.00

Mean target$43.00

High · most bullish analyst$44.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$42.0015%

The bear case is triggered by a severe downturn in the Hawaiian real estate market or a global economic slowdown that curtails tourism. This would lead to rising non-performing assets (NPAs) and higher credit loss provisions, particularly in commercial real estate. Simultaneously, aggressive deposit competition from larger peers could force higher deposit betas, compressing the net interest margin below 3.40% and eroding profitability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$43.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes low single-digit loan and deposit growth in line with management's 2026 guidance. Net interest margin is expected to remain relatively stable in the 3.50%-3.55% range, supported by disciplined loan pricing and core relationship deposits. Expense growth is managed tightly at 2.5%-3.5%, keeping the efficiency ratio near 60%. Capital ratios remain strong, allowing the bank to maintain its $0.29 quarterly dividend and execute opportunistic share repurchases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$44.0025%

The bull case is predicated on a stronger-than-expected recovery in Hawaii's tourism sector, particularly from international travelers (Japan and Korea), which drives robust local deposit growth and low-cost funding. Additionally, successful expansion of digital banking capabilities and wealth management services accelerates non-interest fee income, while the Western US mainland loan participation strategy delivers high-yield credit growth without deteriorating asset quality.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong local franchise with a leading market position in Hawaii business banking and SBA loan originations.
Excellent expense discipline, reflected in an efficiency ratio of 59.87% in Q1 2026.
Robust capital position with a CET1 ratio of 12.6%, well above regulatory well-capitalized requirements.
Consistent shareholder returns through a stable dividend yield and active share buyback program.

Key Investment Risks

High geographic concentration in the state of Hawaii, making the bank highly sensitive to local economic, tourism, and real estate cycles.
Intense competition for deposits, which could drive up funding costs and compress net interest margins.
Potential credit quality deterioration in the commercial real estate (CRE) portfolio under prolonged high interest rates.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net Interest Margin (NIM) falling below 3.40% due to rapid deposit repricing.
A material spike in the non-performing assets (NPA) ratio above 0.50% of total assets.
A significant decline in core deposits (greater than 5% sequentially) forcing reliance on high-cost wholesale funding.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.