Centene Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Centene Corp

CNCNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealthcare Plans

Beta (adjusted)1.06

Intrinsic Value $90.52median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $60.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $30.1B

Enterprise Value $22.1B

Shares Outstanding 493.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Centene's operating recovery strengthened in the second quarter: consolidated HBR improved to 89.6% from 93.0% a year earlier, Commercial HBR improved to 79.2%, and management raised its 2026 adjusted diluted EPS floor above $4.80. The counterweight is substantial enrollment contraction, with total at-risk membership declining to 25.9 million from 28.0 million and Marketplace membership falling to 3.5 million from 5.9 million. At the issuer-reported price of $64.75, the shares were already close to their $69.36 52-week high, supporting a Hold pending evidence that margin improvement persists without further material membership erosion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$56.00

Mean target$71.67

High · most bullish analyst$85.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$56.0015%

Medical-cost trends deteriorate above guidance, the increased adjusted EPS floor is withdrawn, or membership contraction outweighs pricing and cost-management gains.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$71.6760%

Matches the consensus mean

Margin recovery continues but is balanced by lower Medicaid and Marketplace membership, leaving limited near-term rerating from the issuer-reported $64.75 share price.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$85.0025%

Sustained medical-cost execution keeps consolidated HBR within or below the 90.5%-91.3% full-year guidance range, Commercial profitability remains materially improved, and Medicaid and Medicare performance supports further earnings confidence.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 consolidated HBR improved to 89.6% from 93.0% in Q2 2025, while Commercial HBR improved to 79.2% from 90.6%.
Management increased 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to greater than $4.80 and total-revenue guidance to $193.5-$197.5 billion.
Q2 product HBRs of 93.9% for Medicaid and 89.5% for Medicare were described by management as in line with expectations and reflecting Medicare outperformance.

Key Investment Risks

Total at-risk membership declined to 25,885,400 at June 30, 2026, from 28,004,900 one year earlier.
Marketplace membership declined to 3,494,700 from 5,862,800, increasing dependence on pricing, risk-adjustment accuracy, and continued cost discipline.
Centene identifies government funding, rate adequacy, medical-cost inflation, ACA subsidy policy, CMS Star ratings, contract retention, cybersecurity, and regulatory compliance as factors that could materially affect performance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.