Cemex SAB de CV ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryBuilding Materials Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value $13.65median of 6 methods · middle span $7-$40based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $9.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.6B Enterprise Value $18B Shares Outstanding 1.4B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cemex entered the second half of 2026 with strong consolidated momentum: second-quarter operating EBITDA increased 24%, margin reached 22.2%, and free cash flow from operations reached US$637 million. Management raised full-year EBITDA-growth guidance to 16%-17% and increased Project Cutting Edge's recurring-savings target to US$475 million. These positives are partly offset by an 11% decline in U.S. operating EBITDA, the inclusion of a favorable European settlement in reported growth, and foreign-exchange sensitivity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$11.00 Mean target$14.75 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $11.0019% The bear case assumes U.S. operating weakness persists, consolidated margin falls back toward the prior-year second-quarter level, and reported growth proves less durable after excluding the favorable European settlement. Slower savings realization or adverse currency movements would further reduce earnings quality and cash-generation expectations. Base CaseCentral scenario $14.7556% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Cemex delivers within its 16%-17% full-year EBITDA-growth guidance, while Mexican and EMEA strength offsets muted U.S. performance. Incremental Project Cutting Edge benefits are weighted toward 2027, limiting near-term upside beyond current operational momentum. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0025% The bull case assumes that the second-quarter operating momentum persists, the United States recovers from weather-related weakness, and Project Cutting Edge delivers the full US$475 million recurring-savings objective. Continued margin expansion and strong cash conversion would support a material rerating from the issuer-displayed US$10.87 ADS price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |