Cementos Pacasmayo SAA ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryBuilding Materials Beta (adjusted)0.41 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $12.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 84.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Nov 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. (CPAC) is the dominant cement manufacturer in northern Peru, commanding a near-monopoly in its core territory. The investment narrative has shifted from purely organic infrastructure-driven growth to a deal-driven play following Holcim Ltd.'s acquisition of a 50.01% controlling stake. While the company's operational performance remains highly robust—evidenced by double-digit revenue growth and significant EBITDA margin expansion in Q1 2026—the stock has largely re-rated to align with the transaction-implied valuation. Consequently, Wall Street consensus has converged on a Hold rating, reflecting limited near-term upside beyond the transaction price target of approximately $12.90 per ADR. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.38 Mean target$12.79 High · most bullish analyst$13.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.38 The bear case centers on potential regulatory delays or unfavorable terms imposed by Peru's Securities Market Superintendence (SMV) during its review of the Holcim transaction. Additionally, a prolonged economic slowdown in Peru or political instability that halts public infrastructure projects would depress volumes and squeeze margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $12.79 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes the successful execution of Holcim's mandatory tender offer (OPA) for minority shares at a valuation aligned with the transaction multiples (~9x EBITDA). Operations are expected to remain stable with steady demand from the self-construction (bagged cement) market and ongoing public works, keeping the stock trading close to the consensus target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $13.00 The bull case is driven by rapid integration with Holcim, unlocking more than the projected USD 40 million in synergies, alongside a major acceleration in Peruvian public infrastructure spending and post-disaster reconstruction in the northern region. This would drive higher capacity utilization and pricing power, pushing margins and earnings well above consensus expectations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |