Cellebrite DI Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cellebrite DI Ltd

CLBTNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)1.12

Intrinsic Value $12.92median of 6 methods · middle span $10-$28based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $11.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $2.8B

Shares Outstanding 249.9M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) is transitioning from a point-solution mobile forensics provider into a comprehensive, AI-powered digital investigative suite. The company's recent general availability launch of Genesis AI on June 10, 2026, represents a major catalyst to accelerate Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and expand operating margins. Backed by a highly sticky customer base of over 7,000 public safety and defense agencies, a 115% net retention rate, and a newly achieved FedRAMP High Authorization, Cellebrite is uniquely positioned to capture the rapidly growing demand for digital evidence management. The strategic acquisition of SCG Canada further expands its addressable market into drone forensics, a high-growth category where competitors lack comparable handheld capabilities.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$12.50

Mean target$15.36

High · most bullish analyst$20.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$12.5010%

Macroeconomic headwinds or public sector budget constraints delay procurement cycles for high-value AI modules. Competitors introduce aggressive pricing or comparable AI-driven investigative tools, slowing down Genesis adoption. Integration friction with SCG Canada or security vulnerabilities in cloud deployments lead to customer churn, compressing NRR below 110% and limiting ARR growth to the low teens.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.3660%

Matches the consensus mean

Cellebrite successfully executes its FY26 guidance, delivering ARR of $567M-$573M (18-19% growth) and revenue of $565M-$571M. Genesis AI sees steady adoption among North American state and local government customers, while international rollouts proceed as planned. SCG Canada's drone forensics integration provides a modest cross-sell tailwind, and Adjusted EBITDA margins land within the guided 26-27% range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$20.0030%

Rapid adoption of Genesis AI and Guardian Investigate drives significant ARR acceleration, exceeding the high end of FY26 guidance ($573M). FedRAMP High Authorization unlocks large-scale US federal defense and intelligence contracts. Operating leverage from SaaS scaling expands Adjusted EBITDA margins beyond 28%, leading to multiple expansion as the company is re-rated as a premium enterprise software player.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Market Leadership & High Barriers to Entry: Trusted by over 7,000 global law enforcement, defense, and intelligence organizations, creating a highly defensible competitive moat.
Strong Financial Profile: High-margin subscription model with 86% Non-GAAP gross margins, 21% YoY ARR growth ($493M in Q1 2026), and a robust 32% TTM free cash flow margin.
AI-Powered Product Catalysts: The general availability of Genesis AI and Guardian Investigate unifies multi-source evidence and slashes investigative workloads from weeks to minutes, driving higher average contract values.
Strategic Expansion into Drones: The acquisition of SCG Canada adds handheld drone forensics (CFID) supporting over 80 UAV models, capturing a critical and rapidly growing public safety threat vector.

Key Investment Risks

Public Sector Budget Cycles: Dependence on government funding and complex procurement processes can lead to lumpy quarterly revenue and deal delays.
Technological Obsolescence: Rapidly evolving mobile operating systems and encryption protocols require continuous R&D investment to maintain device access capabilities.
Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: Operations based in Israel and sales to global government entities expose the company to geopolitical volatility and strict export control regulations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A decline in the recurring revenue dollar-based net retention rate (NRR) below 110%, indicating customer dissatisfaction or successful competitive encroachment.
Significant delays or weak initial adoption metrics for Genesis AI during its North American and international rollouts.
A major security breach or data privacy failure within Cellebrite's cloud-based Guardian or Genesis platforms, damaging its trusted status with law enforcement agencies.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.