Celestica Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronic Manufacturing Services Beta (adjusted)1.31 Intrinsic Value $540.61median of 6 methods · middle span $92-$2,219based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $373.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $47.1B Enterprise Value $47.3B Shares Outstanding 115.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Celestica entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: Q2 revenue increased 62% year over year, adjusted operating margin reached 8.2%, and management raised its 2026 outlook to $20.5 billion of revenue, $11.30 of adjusted EPS, and $600 million of free cash flow. Management also expects 2027 revenue growth to exceed the 65% anticipated for 2026 and expects adjusted EPS to grow faster than revenue. A Hold recommendation therefore balances unusually strong growth and execution against valuation uncertainty and material execution, customer-concentration, supply, tariff, and capacity risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$410.00 Mean target$473.24 High · most bullish analyst$550.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $410.0020% Customer forecasts weaken or program ramps slip while component, tariff, capacity, talent, power, or water constraints impair execution. Revenue falls below the low end of near-term guidance, operating leverage reverses, and Celestica misses one or more elements of its raised 2026 outlook. Customer and segment concentration amplify the downside. Base CaseCentral scenario $473.2455% Matches the consensus meanCelestica substantially achieves its 2026 outlook of $20.5 billion in revenue, $11.30 in adjusted EPS, an 8.4% adjusted operating margin, and $600 million in free cash flow, with Q3 results remaining within the issued guidance ranges. Growth continues into 2027 but normalizes as capacity, component supply, and customer deployment schedules constrain the pace. Bull CaseUpside scenario $550.0025% Customer demand, improved component supply, and new program wins enable 2027 revenue growth to exceed management's anticipated 65% growth rate for 2026. Continued operating leverage and favorable mix lift adjusted EPS faster than revenue while margins remain at or above the 8.4% 2026 outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |