CDW Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryInformation Technology Services Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $180.00median of 6 methods · middle span $168-$198based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $135.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $17B Enterprise Value $22.4B Shares Outstanding 127.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CDW entered the second half of 2026 with strong demand for infrastructure modernization, cloud and AI-enabled technologies: second-quarter net sales increased 10.0% and non-GAAP diluted EPS increased 11.9%. The balanced view reflects weaker profitability conversion, with gross margin declining to 20.1% from 20.8% and GAAP operating margin declining to 6.5% from 7.0%, while first-half free cash flow fell materially year over year. CDW's diversified customer exposure, stated objective to outgrow the US IT addressable market by 200–300 basis points, and established shareholder-return program support the long-term case, but margin, working-capital and public-sector demand risks warrant a Hold pending clearer evidence that growth converts into stronger cash generation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$123.00 Mean target$155.89 High · most bullish analyst$171.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $123.0023% Customer spending weakens, public-sector demand is disrupted, or AI-related supply constraints raise costs. Revenue growth then fails to offset adverse hardware mix, gross margin falls below the monitoring threshold, and elevated receivables and inventory extend the cash-conversion cycle. Base CaseCentral scenario $155.8958% Matches the consensus meanSales continue growing, but at a more normalized pace, while hardware mix limits gross-margin expansion and working-capital requirements constrain near-term cash conversion. CDW broadly achieves its stated objective of exceeding US IT addressable-market growth by 200–300 basis points, with earnings benefiting from operating discipline and a lower diluted share count. Bull CaseUpside scenario $171.0019% Demand for infrastructure modernization, cloud and practical AI deployments remains strong, enabling CDW to sustain above-market growth. Continued strength in Commercial, Government and international operations, combined with operating discipline and share-count reduction, produces durable earnings growth despite product-mix pressure. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |