Cboe Global Markets Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data Beta (adjusted)0.62 Intrinsic Value $317.10median of 6 methods · middle span $232-$1,032based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $277.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $28.9B Enterprise Value $28.1B Shares Outstanding 105.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Cboe entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter net revenue increased 25%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 45%, management raised its organic net-revenue outlook, and July index-options volume remained 34% above the prior year. The proprietary index-options franchise, Data Vantage, clearing expansion and new prediction-market products provide multiple growth vectors. Offsetting these merits are concentration in transaction-sensitive derivatives activity, modest erosion in selected market-share measures, execution risk around the Canada and Australia divestitures. The evidence supports a high-quality operating outlook but not a valuation-dependent Buy recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$258.00 Mean target$317.71 High · most bullish analyst$380.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $258.0018% Lower volatility or trading activity reduces index-options volume and unfavorable product mix weakens revenue capture, while market-share pressure and costs associated with portfolio realignment reduce operating leverage. Failure to complete or smoothly transition the Canada and Australia divestitures would add execution risk. Base CaseCentral scenario $317.7158% Matches the consensus meanOrganic net-revenue growth moderates from the unusually strong first half but remains within management's mid-to-high-teens 2026 target, while adjusted operating expenses remain within the USD 838 million to USD 853 million range. Index options remain the principal earnings driver, with Data Vantage and clearing contributing diversification. Bull CaseUpside scenario $380.0024% Sustained index-options adoption, continued 0DTE and global-hours activity, successful commercialization of Cboe Predicts, and expansion of centrally cleared securities financing could keep organic growth near the upper end of management's raised outlook while preserving strong operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |