cbdMD Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)1.76 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $0.45Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.1M Enterprise Value $3M Shares Outstanding 11.7M diluted Next Earnings Date17 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary cbdMD, Inc. (YCBD) is navigating a critical operational pivot under its dual CEO/CFO leadership and newly appointed Chief Marketing Officer, Wade Brown. While the company has demonstrated positive top-line momentum—reporting a 19% year-over-year net sales increase to $5.6 million in Q2 fiscal 2026—it continues to face persistent unprofitability, cash burn, and a going-concern warning. The strategic acquisition of Bluebird Botanicals and expansion into federal pathways like Medicare BEI offer long-term growth optionality, but near-term liquidity constraints and gross margin contraction (declining to 58% due to wholesale mix shift) warrant a cautious Hold stance until sustainable cash-flow generation is achieved. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.00 Mean target$2.00 High · most bullish analyst$2.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent cash burn exhausts existing cash reserves faster than the ELOC can be registered and drawn, forcing highly dilutive equity raises or debt restructuring. Gross margins continue to contract below 55% due to aggressive wholesale discounting, and the company faces renewed NYSE American listing compliance issues as the stock price remains depressed. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully integrates Bluebird Botanicals and stabilizes its gross margins near 60% by optimizing its DTC and wholesale mix. Wade Brown's marketing initiatives successfully lower customer acquisition costs, allowing the company to narrow its operating losses and leverage its $20 million equity line of credit to bridge the cash runway without severe dilution. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case rests on successful integration of Bluebird Botanicals to drive positive EBITDA, combined with rapid clinical channel adoption via the newly activated CMS Medicare BEI pathway, positioning cbdMD as a leading medical-grade supplier. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |