Caterpillar Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.41 Intrinsic Value $655.54median of 6 methods · middle span $357-$1,314based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $826.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $379.9B Enterprise Value $409.3B Shares Outstanding 462.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Caterpillar entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter sales and revenues rose 24%, adjusted operating margin reached 21.9%, all three primary segments reported higher sales, and management cited strong order rates and a growing backlog. Power generation, including data-center applications, and broad construction demand are important supports. The counterweight is execution and cycle risk after a sharp expansion: unfavorable manufacturing costs affected Power & Energy and Resource Industries, operating profit included $392 million of expected tariff recoveries, and the shares closed at $800.25 on August 28 within an unusually wide 52-week range. The balance of strong fundamentals and heightened expectation risk supports a Hold rather than a directional Buy or Sell. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$575.00 Mean target$979.22 High · most bullish analyst$1,225.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $575.0019% Dealer and end-user demand weaken after the current expansion, retail-sales growth turns negative, backlog conversion slows, and unfavorable manufacturing costs intensify. Lower volume and the absence of comparable tariff recoveries compress adjusted operating margin below the prior-year comparator, while weaker customer credit performance increases pressure at Cat Financial. Base CaseCentral scenario $979.2257% Matches the consensus meanSales remain supported by backlog, construction activity, mining demand and power-generation investment, but growth moderates from the second quarter's 24% rate. Adjusted margin remains healthy but below the exceptional second-quarter level as mix, manufacturing costs and less-recurring tariff effects normalize. Bull CaseUpside scenario $1,225.0024% Broadening demand persists across Power & Energy, Construction Industries and Resource Industries. Strong order rates and backlog convert into sustained volume growth, data-center power demand remains robust, favorable pricing continues, and manufacturing-cost pressure is contained. Under this outcome, Caterpillar preserves an adjusted operating margin near the second-quarter level while continuing meaningful shareholder distributions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |