Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier
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SectorHealthcare IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value $32.74median of 6 methods · middle span $21-$50based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $31.49Price as of 14 Jul 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.9B Enterprise Value $3.1B Shares Outstanding 127.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Catalyst Pharmaceuticals is in the process of being acquired by Angelini Pharma S.p.A. for $31.50 per share in cash, representing an aggregate equity value of approximately $4.1 billion. The transaction was unanimously approved by the boards of both companies on May 6, 2026, and is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to shareholder approval at a special meeting on July 8, 2026, and regulatory clearances. Because the stock is trading in a very tight range just below the $31.50 acquisition price, there is limited organic upside or price discovery. Wall Street analysts have broadly downgraded the stock to Neutral/Hold, aligning their price targets with the $31.50 deal price. The investment thesis is now entirely anchored on deal completion rather than organic commercial growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.50 Mean target$31.67 High · most bullish analyst$32.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The merger fails to close due to unexpected regulatory intervention from antitrust authorities (FTC/DOJ) or a failure to secure the required majority vote from outstanding stockholders. In this downside scenario, the stock price would likely fall back to its unaffected pre-announcement levels (around $25.00–$26.00), and the company would have to rely on its organic commercial portfolio (FIRDAPSE, AGAMREE) while facing the loss of exclusivity impact on FYCOMPA. Base CaseCentral scenario The merger with Angelini Pharma is successfully approved by stockholders at the special meeting on July 8, 2026, and receives all necessary regulatory clearances under the HSR Act. The transaction closes in Q3 2026, and Catalyst stockholders receive the agreed-upon $31.50 per share in cash. The stock remains anchored near this price until closing. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |