Castle Biosciences Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Providers & Services Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $24.14median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $35.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $1B Shares Outstanding 30.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Castle Biosciences is a leading precision diagnostics company with strong commercial execution in its core dermatologic and gastroenterological franchises. Despite near-term valuation pressure and elevated operating expenses from aggressive growth investments, the company's core revenue drivers—DecisionDx-Melanoma and TissueCypher—continue to deliver robust double-digit volume growth. The company's upward revision of its 2026 revenue guidance to $345–$355 million highlights strong underlying demand. While the temporary loss of Medicare coverage for its DecisionDx-SCC test remains a headwind, the stock trades at an attractive valuation multiple relative to historical peer averages, offering a compelling risk-reward profile for long-term investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$42.78 High · most bullish analyst$52.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $35.0015% Medicare coverage for DecisionDx-SCC is permanently denied, and private payers increase reimbursement pressure on DecisionDx-Melanoma. TissueCypher adoption slows due to clinician awareness roadblocks in the gastroenterology sector. Aggressive commercial investments fail to yield expected volume growth, leading to prolonged cash burn and a wider-than-expected net loss. Base CaseCentral scenario $40.0060% Core volume growth for DecisionDx-Melanoma remains steady in the mid-teens, and TissueCypher maintains its high-growth trajectory (~50% YoY). The company achieves its raised 2026 revenue guidance of $345–$355 million. Operating expenses remain elevated due to commercial and R&D investments, resulting in a net loss for the year, but cash reserves of over $260 million provide a strong runway. Valuation multiples expand modestly toward historical peer averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario $52.0025% The company successfully regains Medicare coverage for its DecisionDx-SCC test in late 2026, driving immediate high-margin revenue acceleration. TissueCypher continues to exceed expectations, capturing a dominant share of the Barrett's Esophagus risk-stratification market. Operating leverage kicks in faster than expected as the expanded sales force matures, leading to positive adjusted EBITDA and a rapid path to GAAP profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |