Casey's General Stores Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryFood Retail Beta (adjusted)0.74 Intrinsic Value $473.34median of 6 methods · middle span $347-$830based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $619.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $22.9B Enterprise Value $24.8B Shares Outstanding 37.1M diluted Next Earnings Date8 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Casey's enters fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: fiscal 2026 EBITDA increased 23.6%, inside same-store sales increased 4.2%, inside margin reached 42.2%, and management established fiscal 2027 targets of 8% to 10% EBITDA growth, 2% to 5% inside same-store sales growth, inside margin above 42%, and at least 120 store additions. Its new three-year plan emphasizes food and beverage, at least 400 additional stores, and technology-enabled efficiency. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$795.00 Mean target$957.39 High · most bullish analyst$1,069.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $795.0020% Inside sales fall below the 2% guidance floor, inside margin declines to 42% or lower, or EBITDA growth misses 8% as labor, ingredient, distribution, or expansion costs outweigh scale benefits. Acquisition integration or new-store execution could also slow the three-year expansion plan. Base CaseCentral scenario $957.3955% Matches the consensus meanCasey's delivers within fiscal 2027 guidance: 2% to 5% inside same-store sales growth, inside margin above 42%, 8% to 10% EBITDA growth, and at least 120 store additions. Food remains the principal differentiator while expansion and operating-efficiency initiatives support durable growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $1,069.0025% Prepared-food and beverage initiatives, including broader wings distribution and private-brand development, sustain inside sales near or above the upper end of guidance. Margin remains above 42%, technology investments improve store productivity, and disciplined acquisitions and development keep the three-year plan for at least 400 stores on track. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |