Casella Waste Systems Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryWaste Management Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $60.85median of 5 methods · middle span $3-$89based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $78.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5B Enterprise Value $6.3B Shares Outstanding 63.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Casella Waste Systems (CWST) presents a compelling regional consolidation story in the solid waste and resource management sector. Under the leadership of new CEO Ned Coletta, the company is executing an aggressive acquisition strategy, completing four major deals in 2026 representing approximately $150 million in annualized revenues. While near-term profitability is pressured by integration costs, elevated interest expenses, and depreciation, the underlying pricing power (solid waste pricing up 5.1% in Q1 2026) and robust top-line growth (9.6% YoY in Q1 2026) support a strong long-term cash flow compounding narrative. The company's strategic positioning in the landfill-constrained Northeast provides a durable competitive moat. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$91.00 Mean target$111.80 High · most bullish analyst$130.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $91.00 Persistent integration issues, labor shortages, and rising operational costs continue to compress operating margins. Elevated capital expenditures and interest rates weigh heavily on net income, causing the company to miss its lowered fiscal 2026 net income guidance of $4M - $10M, leading to multiple compression. Base CaseCentral scenario $111.80 Matches the consensus meanCasella successfully delivers on its updated fiscal year 2026 guidance, achieving revenues of $2.06B - $2.08B and Adjusted EBITDA of $473M - $483M. Solid waste pricing remains stable in the mid-single digits, and the company continues its steady pace of regional roll-up acquisitions while gradually resolving transitory ERP and integration headwinds. Bull CaseUpside scenario $130.00 Rapid integration of recent acquisitions (including Star Waste Systems) drives significant cost synergies and margin expansion. Strong pricing power outpaces inflationary pressures, and capital-light sustainability projects (such as the Chemung County RNG facility) generate high-margin incremental cash flows. The stock moves toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |