Carvana Co Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomotive Retail Beta (adjusted)2.64 Intrinsic Value $33.32median of 6 methods · middle span $30-$63based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $63.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $69.9B Enterprise Value $72.4B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Carvana entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: Q2 retail units increased 38% year over year to a record 197,325, and Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $769 million. Management expects sequential retail-unit growth in Q3 and $2.7-$3.0 billion of full-year Adjusted EBITDA. The long runway is supported by management's statement that Carvana represented only 1.5% of the U.S. automotive market at its Q2 run rate. A Hold is appropriate because the favorable operating evidence is balanced by guidance conditional on a stable environment and disclosed risks involving consumer demand, tariffs, used-vehicle prices, inventory, regulation, rapid scaling, customer service, capital access and substantial indebtedness. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$82.83 High · most bullish analyst$120.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $60.0020% A less stable demand or pricing environment, tariff effects, inventory constraints, regulatory developments, financing pressure or execution problems cause Q3 retail units to fail to rise sequentially or reduce full-year Adjusted EBITDA below $2.7 billion. Such an outcome would weaken confidence that rapid growth can be managed while maintaining customer experience, reputation and profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $82.8355% Matches the consensus meanRetail units increase sequentially in Q3 as guided, and full-year Adjusted EBITDA remains within the stated $2.7-$3.0 billion range. Growth moderates from Q2's 38% rate while profitability remains strong, leaving the company on its stated long-term scaling path. Bull CaseUpside scenario $120.0025% Carvana sustains industry-leading unit growth, finishes 2026 near or above the upper end of its $2.7-$3.0 billion Adjusted EBITDA outlook, and continues converting its national infrastructure and technology into operating leverage. Continued execution would strengthen the path toward management's long-term objective of 3 million annual retail units and a 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin during 2030-2035. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |