Carters Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Retail Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $52.07median of 5 methods · middle span $48-$57based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $31.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 64% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+64%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 35.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Carter's Inc. (CRI) is navigating a pivotal transition period marked by a major leadership change and significant tariff headwinds. The appointment of Sharon Price John (former Build-A-Bear CEO) as President and CEO, effective June 15, 2026, brings fresh strategic perspective to the brand's direct-to-consumer (DTC) and omnichannel operations. While Q1 2026 results demonstrated robust demand with a 10.5% increase in U.S. Retail comparable sales, profitability remains pressured by elevated import duties under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The thesis hinges on whether the company can successfully transition to lower reciprocal tariff rates in the second half of 2026, which could unlock substantial gross margin expansion and EPS upside. Given the near-term margin compression and cautious full-year guidance, a Hold recommendation is warranted until the new leadership's strategic initiatives and tariff relief materialize in the financial results. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$42.67 High · most bullish analyst$53.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged tariff uncertainty, persistent supply chain inflation, and a failure to capture Gen-Z consumers. If e-commerce growth stalls and store closures lead to higher-than-expected sales attrition without cost leverage, operating margins will contract further, leading to downward revisions in full-year earnings. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Carter's successfully executes its retail optimization strategy, closing 150 low-margin stores while transferring 15% to 20% of sales to digital and nearby channels. Tariff pressures are expected to ease in H2 2026 as IEEPA is replaced with lower reciprocal rates, driving gross margin recovery. Under this scenario, the company achieves low-to-mid single-digit net sales growth and stable adjusted operating income for FY 2026. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |