Carrier Global Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products Beta (adjusted)1.20 Intrinsic Value $44.84median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$55based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $55.22Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $45.5B Enterprise Value $55.6B Shares Outstanding 826.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Carrier entered the second half of 2026 with improving demand and a raised outlook: Q2 organic sales grew 3%, total company orders rose approximately 40%, commercial-HVAC orders rose approximately 65%, and data-center orders exceeded 300% growth. Management raised full-year expectations to approximately $23 billion of sales, $3.5 billion of adjusted operating profit and $2.90 of adjusted EPS. The counterweight is profitability: Q2 adjusted operating margin fell 190 basis points year over year as input costs and unfavorable mix more than offset volume and productivity. Portfolio exits and the 75F acquisition sharpen the strategic focus, but execution, margin recovery and backlog conversion remain the key tests. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$77.82 High · most bullish analyst$90.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $60.0018% Data-center order growth decelerates sharply or backlog conversion slips while input costs, unfavorable mix, China residential weakness and lower global truck-and-trailer volume persist. In that outcome, Carrier misses its raised sales, adjusted-EPS or free-cash-flow outlook and medium-term margin expansion is delayed. Base CaseCentral scenario $77.8258% Matches the consensus meanCarrier broadly delivers its raised 2026 outlook as record backlog and improving residential and light-commercial demand offset portfolio-exit headwinds, unfavorable mix and input-cost pressure. Margin recovery is gradual rather than immediate. Bull CaseUpside scenario $90.0024% Commercial HVAC and data-center demand remain exceptionally strong, backlog converts on schedule, residential and light-commercial recovery broadens, and 75F strengthens Carrier's intelligent-building platform. Under this case, Carrier sustains progress toward its medium-term framework of 6%-8% annual organic growth, more than 50 basis points of annual adjusted-margin expansion and mid-teens adjusted-EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |