Carriage Services Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryDiversified Consumer Services Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $40.42median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$63based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $31.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $504.9M Enterprise Value $508.6M Shares Outstanding 15.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Carriage Services Inc. (CSV) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a resilient mid-cap deathcare consolidator. Despite near-term headwinds in funeral contract volumes, the company has demonstrated robust pricing power, particularly in its cemetery operations, which has successfully expanded EBITDA margins. The newly introduced $100 million At-The-Market (ATM) equity program provides flexible, low-cost capital to accelerate its return to purposeful growth through strategic acquisitions, while management remains committed to maintaining a disciplined leverage profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.00 Mean target$60.00 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent declines in funeral volumes, driven by accelerating cremation trends and consumer pushback on pricing, erode operating leverage. Dilution from the ATM program drags down adjusted EPS, and integration challenges with new acquisitions prevent the company from hitting its long-term leverage targets. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its 'DRIVE' framework and integrates strategic acquisitions (such as the McCammon Ammons Click Funeral Home in Tennessee). Pricing power offsets minor volume declines, keeping EBITDA margins within the 30.5% to 31.5% target range. Leverage is maintained below 4.0x. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |