Carnival Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Beta (adjusted)1.88 Intrinsic Value $31.50median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$34based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $25.07Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $33.7B Enterprise Value $56.4B Shares Outstanding 1.5B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date18 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Carnival's operating trajectory remains constructive: second-quarter revenue reached a record USD 6.7 billion, constant-currency net yields increased 2.2%, deposits approached USD 9.0 billion, and the company reported that 2027-and-beyond bookings and prices were ahead of prior-year levels. A Hold stance therefore recognizes strong demand, cost execution, deleveraging and restored capital returns while withholding a more bullish valuation conclusion until a permissible consensus target or independently supportable market-price anchor is available. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$28.70 Mean target$35.55 High · most bullish analyst$43.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $28.7018% Geopolitical disruption persists, European close-in demand weakens, fuel and logistics costs remain elevated, and net yields or adjusted EBITDA fall below guidance. Slower cash generation would constrain deleveraging and shareholder returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.5555% Matches the consensus meanCarnival broadly delivers its full-year 2026 guidance of approximately 1.75% constant-currency net-yield growth and USD 7.11 billion of adjusted EBITDA while leverage continues to improve gradually. Strong deposits and forward bookings offset moderate geopolitical and fuel pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario $43.0027% Demand for 2027 and beyond continues ahead of prior-year booking volumes and prices, the company sustains record net yields, destination investments add high-margin demand, and operating cash flow supports simultaneous deleveraging, dividends and repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |