Carlyle Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Carlyle Group Inc

CGNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)1.56

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $40.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $14.4B

Shares Outstanding 372.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Carlyle entered the second half of 2026 with record assets under management and record quarterly fee-related earnings, supported by fundraising and realization momentum. Management's 2028 objectives provide a measurable path to higher recurring earnings and distributable earnings per share. However, the outcome remains sensitive to fundraising, realizations, investment performance and transaction activity.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$49.00

Mean target$58.06

High · most bullish analyst$73.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$49.0018%

Fundraising slows, realizations weaken and lower transaction or performance-related revenue offsets growth in recurring management fees. Failure to achieve the stated 2028 inflows, fee-related earnings or distributable-earnings objectives would undermine the operating-leverage thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$58.0659%

Matches the consensus mean

Carlyle continues to expand assets and management fees while realization and performance-related earnings remain cyclical. The firm makes credible progress toward its 2028 objectives, but uneven transaction markets and investment realizations limit near-term visibility.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$73.0023%

Carlyle sustains strong fundraising across institutional, wealth, credit and AlpInvest channels; realizations remain healthy; and fee-related earnings scale with operating leverage. Meeting or exceeding the 2028 objectives for at least $1.9 billion of annual fee-related earnings, at least $200 billion of cumulative inflows and at least $6.00 of annual distributable earnings per share would support a materially stronger earnings profile.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record total assets under management of approximately $485 billion at June 30, 2026 demonstrates platform scale and fundraising momentum.
Record quarterly fee-related earnings of approximately $358 million, up 11% year over year at a 47% margin, indicate growth in the more recurring component of earnings.
The 2028 objectives—at least $1.9 billion of annual fee-related earnings, at least $200 billion of cumulative inflows and at least $6.00 of annual distributable earnings per share—provide concrete execution benchmarks; the board also authorized a $2 billion share-repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

Realized performance revenue, transaction fees and distributable earnings depend on investment performance, realizations and capital-market conditions and can remain volatile despite growth in recurring fees.
Fundraising is competitive and sensitive to fund performance, investor allocations, macroeconomic conditions and the timing of flagship fund cycles.
The 2028 objectives require sustained inflows, investment performance, realizations and operating leverage; shortfalls in any of these drivers could impair the earnings-growth thesis.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.