Carlisle Companies Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $334.90median of 6 methods · middle span $334-$844based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $325.21Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.9B Enterprise Value $15.1B Shares Outstanding 40M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Carlisle entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 8%, adjusted EPS increased 12%, both operating businesses generated 8% organic growth, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to mid-single-digit growth. The offset is weaker near-term earnings leverage. Petroleum-derived raw-material and freight inflation outpaced pricing in the second quarter, prompting management to reduce its margin outlook from approximately 50 basis points of expansion to flat. Re-roofing demand, strategic share gains, productivity initiatives, innovation and substantial repurchases support the long-term case, while weak new construction and delayed price-cost recovery temper near-term conviction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$340.00 Mean target$412.14 High · most bullish analyst$475.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $340.0022% New-construction weakness broadens, customer pre-buying reverses, and petroleum-derived input and freight costs remain above realized pricing. Full-year revenue growth falls below guidance and adjusted EBITDA margin contracts, reducing cash available for repurchases and delaying progress toward Vision 2030 objectives. Base CaseCentral scenario $412.1458% Matches the consensus meanCarlisle broadly delivers its raised 2026 outlook of mid-single-digit revenue growth and flat adjusted EBITDA margin. Re-roofing demand and strategic initiatives offset weak new construction, while pricing gradually catches up with raw-material and freight inflation. The $1.2 billion repurchase objective and higher dividend support per-share value. Bull CaseUpside scenario $475.0020% Pricing increases and freight surcharges recover input inflation during the second half and into 2027, while solid re-roofing demand, strategic share gains, new-product launches and Carlisle Operating System productivity sustain above-market growth. Margin performance improves from the flat 2026 outlook, and disciplined repurchases enhance per-share results. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |