CarGurus Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto & Truck Dealerships Beta (adjusted)1.11 Intrinsic Value $38.96median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$108based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $29.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.6B Enterprise Value $2.5B Shares Outstanding 95.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CarGurus, Inc. represents a compelling value-growth opportunity in the digital automotive marketplace sector. Following the wind-down of its capital-intensive and lower-margin CarOffer wholesale venture, the company has emerged as a cleaner, highly profitable, and cash-generative business. CarGurus maintains a dominant top-of-funnel traffic position in the U.S. and is successfully scaling its high-margin international segments in the U.K. and Canada. The company's aggressive capital allocation strategy, characterized by substantial share repurchases, combined with its debt-free balance sheet and expanding suite of high-margin AI-powered dealer software tools, positions it for robust long-term earnings-per-share growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.00 Mean target$41.50 High · most bullish analyst$46.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $34.0020% Macroeconomic headwinds, including persistent high interest rates and tightening consumer credit, depress used car transaction volumes. Dealers pull back on advertising budgets, leading to flat-to-negative paying dealer growth. Intense competition from rival platforms (such as Cars.com and Carvana) limits pricing power, while heavy AI R&D spend compresses margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $41.5050% Matches the consensus meanCarGurus achieves its guided 10% to 13% revenue growth for FY26, supported by steady mid-single-digit paying dealer growth and high-single-digit QARSD expansion. AI product investments cause minor, temporary EBITDA margin compression, but the core marketplace remains highly profitable. Share repurchases continue to support EPS growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $46.0030% Rapid adoption of premium tiers and AI-powered dealer tools (such as PriceVantage) drives double-digit domestic QARSD growth. Concurrently, international dealer acquisition accelerates, and a cyclical recovery in the broader used car market boosts dealer advertising budgets. Aggressive share buybacks continue to shrink the share float, driving high-teens EPS growth and multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |