CareTrust REIT Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

CareTrust REIT Inc

CTRENYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities

Beta (adjusted)0.85

Intrinsic Value $24.14median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $35.91Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.5B

Enterprise Value $9.6B

Shares Outstanding 243.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

CareTrust entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter normalized FFO and FAD were each $0.51 per diluted share, contractual rent and interest collection was 100%, and full-year normalized FFO guidance was raised to $2.03-$2.06 per share. Approximately $1.5 billion had been invested during 2026 at an approximately 8.7% blended stabilized yield, with a further $540 million actionable pipeline. Net leverage was only 1.01x and substantial unsettled forward-equity proceeds supported additional deployment. These strengths are balanced by execution and dilution risk from the rapid investment pace, lower 7.8% yields on investments closed after quarter-end, exposure to tenant reimbursement and staffing conditions, and new UK and senior-housing operating risks. At the issuer-reported market quote of $38.59, the risk-reward appears balanced rather than clearly mispriced.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$43.00

Mean target$45.38

High · most bullish analyst$49.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$43.0021%

Acquisition yields compress materially, integration of UK and senior-housing operating assets is slower than expected, or tenant reimbursement, staffing and solvency pressures weaken collections. Greater reliance on equity financing dilutes per-share growth, leverage rises and normalized FFO falls below guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$45.3856%

Matches the consensus mean

CareTrust delivers within its $2.03-$2.06 normalized FFO guidance range, maintains sound tenant collections and gradually converts the $540 million pipeline. Investment yields moderate from the year-to-date level, while equity issuance and a larger share base absorb part of the incremental earnings.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$49.0023%

CareTrust converts much of its actionable pipeline without material yield compression, integrates its UK and senior-housing operating investments successfully, maintains full rent collection and finishes above the upper end of 2026 normalized FFO guidance. Continued access to attractively priced equity and debt preserves low leverage while acquisition earnings season into 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter normalized FFO and normalized FAD per share each increased 19% year over year to $0.51, and management raised 2026 guidance.
Approximately $1.5 billion of 2026 investment activity had closed at an approximately 8.7% blended stabilized yield, with a further $540 million actionable pipeline.
Net debt to annualized normalized run-rate EBITDA was 1.01x; management also reported cash, revolver availability and unsettled forward-equity proceeds supporting additional investment capacity.
Contractual rent and interest collection was 100%, while the $0.39 quarterly dividend represented an approximately 76% normalized-FAD payout ratio.

Key Investment Risks

Rapid acquisition funding has involved substantial common-equity and forward-equity issuance, creating dilution and execution risk if investments do not produce expected per-share returns.
Tenant and borrower performance remains sensitive to healthcare reimbursement, staffing requirements, litigation, insurance costs, insolvency and facility-level operating conditions.
International expansion and senior-housing operating investments add foreign-exchange, legal, tax, integration and direct operating exposure beyond traditional triple-net leasing.
Post-quarter investment yield of 7.8% was below the approximately 8.7% 2026 year-to-date blended yield, making further yield compression an important return-on-capital risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.