Caredx Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDiagnostics & Research Beta (adjusted)1.95 Intrinsic Value $97.77median of 6 methods · middle span $25-$318based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $66.23Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.4B Enterprise Value $3.1B Shares Outstanding 51.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary CareDx is undergoing a major strategic transformation, divesting its lower-margin Lab Products business for $170 million in cash and acquiring Naveris for up to $260 million to enter the high-growth oncology MRD space. This shift, combined with a 39% YoY revenue surge in Q1 2026 and a newly authorized $100 million share buyback program, positions the company for significant margin expansion and long-term value creation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$52.33 High · most bullish analyst$64.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario CMS implements restrictive LCD policies that severely impact transplant testing reimbursement, causing a $15M to $30M annual revenue headwind. Integration of Naveris faces delays, and the core transplant testing volume growth slows down. Base CaseCentral scenario The core transplant testing business continues to grow sequentially, while the Naveris acquisition successfully closes in Q3 2026, adding a high-margin, Medicare-covered HPV cancer monitoring platform. Operational efficiencies and cash collections remain strong, driving positive adjusted EBITDA and GAAP profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |