Cardinal Health Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Cardinal Health Inc

CAHNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Care Distributors

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value $225.42median of 5 methods · middle span $126-$361based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $230.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $53.3B

Enterprise Value $55.4B

Shares Outstanding 237M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Cardinal Health enters FY2027 with strong operating momentum: FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS excluding the one-time IEEPA tariff-refund benefit rose 33% to $10.95, and management guided to $12.40-$12.60 for FY2027. Cash generation and the expanded repurchase authorization support shareholder returns. The principal constraints are execution risk in the GMPD turnaround, acquisition integration, pharmaceutical-pricing and customer-contract uncertainty, tariffs, generic deflation and litigation exposure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$235.00

Mean target$270.60

High · most bullish analyst$292.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$235.0020%

Results fall below guidance because GMPD improvement stalls after excluding the one-time tariff-refund benefit, while tariffs, branded-pharmaceutical pricing changes, customer losses, generic deflation, acquisition integration or litigation pressure earnings and cash conversion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$270.6055%

Matches the consensus mean

Cardinal Health delivers near its FY2027 guidance: non-GAAP diluted EPS of $12.40-$12.60, Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions profit growth of 8%-11%, GMPD profit of $200-$220 million and adjusted free cash flow of $3.5-$4.0 billion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$292.0025%

Cardinal Health exceeds the upper end of FY2027 EPS guidance as Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions sustains strong profit growth, GMPD exceeds its $220 million profit objective, higher-margin businesses continue expanding and recent home-care acquisitions are accretive. Strong cash generation and repurchases amplify per-share growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS excluding the IEEPA tariff-refund benefit increased 33% to $10.95, followed by FY2027 guidance of $12.40-$12.60.
FY2026 non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow was $4.971 billion, and the board increased the repurchase authorization by $5.0 billion to $6.4 billion as of August 2026.

Key Investment Risks

GMPD generated $158 million of FY2026 segment profit after excluding the $100 million IEEPA tariff-refund benefit, leaving meaningful execution risk against FY2027 guidance of $200-$220 million.
Management identifies branded-pharmaceutical pricing, tariffs, customer contract losses, acquisition integration, litigation and DOJ investigations, geopolitical disruption and generic-program performance as material uncertainties.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.