Capricor Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $8.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $519.8M Enterprise Value $498.8M Shares Outstanding 58.5M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Capricor Therapeutics is at a highly binary, near-term inflection point. The company's lead candidate, Deramiocel (CAP-1002), is under active FDA review for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) with a PDUFA date of August 22, 2026. Backed by positive Phase 3 HOPE-3 trial results that met both primary upper-limb and key secondary cardiac endpoints, the regulatory risk has significantly decreased compared to the prior CRL. While the ongoing litigation with its distribution partner Nippon Shinyaku introduces commercial friction, the appointment of rare-disease launch veteran Michael Maurer as CCO and a robust cash balance of $279 million (funding operations into Q4 2027) position Capricor as a compelling speculative buy ahead of its pivotal regulatory catalyst. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.00 Mean target$10.50 High · most bullish analyst$28.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.0020% The FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or significantly delays approval due to CMC/manufacturing inspections or clinical data requests. Simultaneously, the legal battle with Nippon Shinyaku drags on, freezing commercial preparations and draining cash. Capricor is forced to raise highly dilutive capital as its runway shortens toward 2027. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.5050% Matches the consensus meanThe FDA approves Deramiocel with a label focused primarily on DMD cardiomyopathy. The litigation with Nippon Shinyaku is settled or resolved, allowing a structured launch to proceed either directly or through a renegotiated pricing framework. Commercial launch begins in late 2026/early 2027, supported by the newly appointed CCO and the operational Torrey Pines GMP facility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.0030% The FDA grants full approval to Deramiocel for both skeletal and cardiac manifestations of DMD. Capricor successfully rescinds its distribution agreement with Nippon Shinyaku, allowing it to commercialize directly or partner under highly favorable terms. The company receives and monetizes a Priority Review Voucher (PRV) for over $100 million, extending its cash runway indefinitely without dilution. Peak U.S. patient penetration reaches 2,500, driving blockbuster revenues. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |